Monday, November 29, 1999

Successful strike buoys opposition, for now

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A successful national strike against high prices has rejuvenated the opposition, but their disunity may hamper efforts to force the Congress party-led government to go-slow on its reforms agenda.In what was the biggest show of opposition strength in recent years, many parts of the country shut down on Monday to protest raising of fuel prices when inflation was in double-digits.While the strike's success could see a united opposition disrupt the government push for reform bills in parliament this month, any long-term impact on policy is unlikely primarily because of the opposition parties' vast ideological differences.Leftist groups and the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have not allied in more than two decades."They appear united at this point of time, but this political capital can evaporate very fast given the ideological contradictions within the opposition," said Sudha Pai, professor of politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University.India's opposition has appeared hobbled since last year's national election, which the Congress-led coalition won decisively. Indeed, Congress's own parliamentary allies have often proved more of a headache in passing reform bills.That defeat sent the BJP into disarray, touching off a leadership struggle and a debate over its ideological identity. The leftists lost even in their bastions.Political momentum saw the ruling coalition, which has a majority of seven seats in a 545-seat parliament, push some reforms, including a new tax code and disinvestment in some state-run firms.But other reforms have been put on backburner, including opening up the retail, banking and insurance sectors, largely due to a lack of consent from Congress allies worried about angering voters ahead of state elections in coming months.Monday's strike does show that the opposition to the ruling Congress party-led coalition can unite on one particular issue."Yesterday's (Monday's) strike showed there is a unity of action on road and there was always a unity of action in the (parliament) House," said Prakash Javdekar, BJP spokesman.But most analysts remain sceptical of what an Indian newspaper described as a "cohabitation approach" of the left and rightist opposition."I can't see how they can force a change in policies the government wants to project," Pai said.(Additional reporting by Bappa Majumdar; Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Sugita Katyal)
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